2019 PGA Championship picks, sleepers for daily fantasy golf contests and betting advice

Written By Bennett Bedford

The PGA Championship has traditionally been at the end of the season, but the move to May means that we will see the PGA Championship this week, taking the second major championship slot of year. Bethpage Black is the host site, and we have a nice track record to draw back on from previous U.S. Opens and Barclays Championships having been played at Bethpage. You know Tiger Woods will be on a popular name on the betting markets, but there are still plenty of other good options for gamblers and those in daily fantasy golf contests.

Bethpage Black is widely regarded as one of the most difficult courses in the United States, and we should expect it to play tough yet again this week for the PGA Championship. Bethpage measures out to a long 7,400-yard, Par-70 layout that will likely play slightly longer due to the amount of rain that the course has seen over the past few weeks.

MORE ROTOQL: Lineup Builder | PGA Championship DFS sleepers

Off of the tee, Bethpage Black will force players to shape the ball both directions, and the narrow fairways will test accuracy. While we always like taking bombers -- and the temptation will be there even more so this week with the wet conditions -- the rough at Bethpage this week is going to be thick and penal, so you absolutely do not want to rule out players who are accurate off the tee. Early reports are already that saying keeping the ball in the fairway is going to be crucial this week, especially on holes with elevated greens.  

The greens at Bethpage are poa surfaces that will likely roll around 13.5-14 on the stim-meter. The green complexes at Bethpage are also extremely small, so while gaining strokes on approach will be key, players will inevitably be forced to lean on their scrambling at some point this week. Looking back to the 2016 Barclays, we saw players with great short games pop up on the leaderboard, including Patrick Reed (1st), Jason Day (T4), Rickie Fowler (T7), and Jordan Spieth (T10). I would expect the winning score to float around -6 to -8, so scoring will be at a premium and with only two Par 5s on the course, players will need to score well on the difficult Par 3s and 4s.

Before we get into the PGA Championship picks, we always like to remind you that plenty of strategy goes into cashing winning DFS lineups and winning betting tickets. By now you should know the best place to start is  RotoQL’s DFS tools and the BetQL Mobile App. Our easy-to-use RotoQL PGA Lineup Optimizer gives you a big advantage when you're putting together DFS lineups, and our BetQL Trending Picks and Public Betting tools provide a massive edge when you're making bets, regardless of bankroll size.

I'm always ready to help, too, so check me out on Twitter (@DFSBenj) for even more NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA daily fantasy content and gambling advice.

Key Stats

Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 4 Scoring
Bogey Avoidance

2019 PGA Championship picks (Daily Fantasy Golf)

DFS Core Plays to Consider:  

Top Tier: Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler   

Mid-Tier: Matt Kuchar, Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia, Webb Simpson

Value Plays: Rafa Carbrea Bello, Jonathan Vegas, Kyle Stanley, Matt Wallace, Adam Hadwin, Scott Piercy

2019 PGA Championship betting advice

Outright Bets to Consider

*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Brooks Koepka 11/1

Betting Koepka at a major is an auto bet at this point. The defending PGA Championship winner will look to defend his title this week at Bethpage Black -- a layout that will suit his well-rounded game nicely. Much of the attention around Koepka is his driving distance, but it’s his vastly underrated ability around the greens that has my attention for this week. Just look back to his win at Shinnecock last year for the US Open for an example of the type of short game that Kopeka has in the biggest of moments. The guy has ice in his veins, and while the odds aren’t nearly as good as what we were able to grab him at for the Masters, 11/1 still makes him my favorite bet among the “big four” of Koepka, Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson, and Rory McIlroy.

Rickie Fowler 18/1

I have to admit that I have never bet on Fowler in a major championship before, but there is a first time for everything! The main reason that I tend to fade Fowler in the betting markets is that his odds typically don’t match up with what his win equity is and add in the fact that he has yet to have a major victory, he makes for a tough sell at 20/1 or under. However, this week at Bethpage sees some things trending in Fowler's favor. His game is trending in the right direction following a top-10 finish at The Master,s and a T4 showing at the Wells Fargo Championship in which he closed 66-68 on the weekend. Fowler has the type of well-rounded game that I’m looking for this week, and he will likely need to call on his short game to contend at a difficult course where scoring will be at a premium. Fowler almost won the 2016 Barclays at Bethpage Black and was the 54-hole leader before a final round 73 pushed him down to a T7 finish. I’ve seen 22/1-20/1 still floating out there, so shop around to find the best line on Fowler.

Matt Kuchar 40/1

What a season it’s been for Kuchar, and I’ve been eyeing him at Bethpage Black since the start of the season. I don’t think that bombers will have a massive advantage this week despite the wet and soft conditions and those may actually help a player like Kuchar, who excels with his long iron and hybrid approaches. Kuchar has fired off finished of T7, T12, and solo second over his past three events, with all of them coming at starkly different layouts. The aging Kuchar probably only has two-to-four more years at the top of his game, and I think he will get that elusive major championship victory soon.

Bubba Watson 66/1

Like Rickie Fowler, I almost never bet on  Watson, but he is really standing out to me this week for a few reasons. Bubba has quietly been excellent this season, making his past seven cuts with two top-five finishes in that time frame. He played well at The Masters, scoring a T12 finish and he has typically been a great putter on poa greens over his career. Bethpage Black features holes that require players to shape the ball both ways off of the tee -- something that no one in the game of golf does as well as Watson. The 66/1 number offers some nice value for a player that has a history of winning big events over his career, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his odds get cut to 50/1 as Thursday morning approaches.

Kyle Stanley 150/1

Stanley has sucked me in a few times over the past two years, and right when I think that I can quit him, he turns around his form with finishes of T21 and T8 over his past two events at The Masters and The Wells Fargo Championship. When Stanley is playing his best he is a top-20 ball strikers in the world, and his game is close to someone like Lucas Glover, who won at this course back in 2009 when the U.S. Open was held here. Sure, the blowup risk for Stanley is certainly in play, but I like the number at 150/1 and the PGA Championship tends to be the one major championship that we have seen long shots come from seemingly nowhere to win.  A top-20 bet at +550 is also an interesting add on bet for Stanley if you think that he is rounding into form.

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