PGA Championship PGA DFS picks, sleepers, fades, strategy

Written By Aaron White

An important aspect of PGA DFS is having a method by which to determine whether every golfer in your lineup has a realistic chance of winning. If you aren’t using math or a model, there are a couple of steps to take in order to break this down. First, look at a golfer’s odds. While odds aren’t everything, they can at least give you a ballpark of how the betting community values a golfer. Generally, you want to roster golfers with close to a one-percent chance of winning the tournament or a 10-percent chance of making the top 10.

Next, analyze the tournament’s history. For the PGA Championship, four of the past five winners rank inside the current top-15 OWGR, and golfers outside of the upper tier really tend to struggle. Therefore, my suggestion this week is to lean toward the middle-pricing tier instead of rostering studs and duds, as I don’t believe the duds will give you enough to prop up the returns from paying for the studs

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PGA Championship picks and PGA DFS strategy

Target Mid-Price Golfers

I don’t think Henrik Stenson will get as much attention as he deserves this week for a couple of reasons. For one thing, Stenson doesn’t drive the ball very far, but perhaps more important, Stenson has been relatively quiet recently for a golfer of his caliber with only one top-10 finish on the season and his last PGA Tour win coming in August of 2017. However, what Stenson gives up in driving distance he more than makes up for in driving accuracy. He is likely the most accurate golfer that has a legitimate chance to win this week on a course for which accuracy could be undervalued and very well come into play. That type of standout talent combined with his proven ability to win not just on the PGA Tour but also at a major (The Open in 2016) make Stenson a dangerous golfer at less-than-average salary.

Although Hideki Matsuyama hasn’t had any spectacular results this season, he has still been very good and incredibly consistent. Matsuyama has made every cut with eight top-25 finishes, three top-10 finishes, and only one finish below T33rd. All of this tells me that this elite golfer is ready to return to the winner’s circle and finally earn his first major. Already with two top-five finishes at the PGA Championship and playing excellent golf this year, Matsuyama is an outstanding play at remarkably just above average salary. He doesn’t have much of a glaring weakness to his game and there is no reason he shouldn’t have a chance to post another top-five finish this week or better. Matsuyama is getting lost in the mix and is going for a discount due to the absence of a recent win – take advantage.

I am surprised Webb Simpson isn’t getting more hype this week. Like Stenson, Simpson relies more on accuracy than driving distance. Simpson is one of the cheapest golfers you can roster this week that still has considerable odds at 1.3 percent. This season, he has made 10 out of 11 cuts with eight top-25 finishes and three top-10 finishes. His most recent top-10 finish was a T5th at the Masters, so there shouldn’t be any concerns about handling the pressure of a major. He has also won a major (U.S. Open in 2012), so the winning upside is there. This is a golfer that has simply been too hot for too long to be sitting at such a low price this week. Roster Simpson with confidence.

Aaron White graduated from Northwestern University with a B.A. in Economics. He has played DFS professionally for several years and has won featured NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and golf GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

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