It always feels like certain things are given going into the NFL season. But because of the attrition rate among the league's players, those "givens" don't always pan out.
Still, that never stops bettors from taking chances on prop bets before the season starts.
Prop bets are often a good value proposition. If you can find the undervalued players across the league and bet on them, you stand a good chance of striking gold. Of course, you also have to hope that they stay healthy to reach these ceilings. But as long as they do, savvy bettors can hit on sleeper picks and underdogs.
Ahead of the 2021 NFL season, there are a handful of good-looking prop bets for bettors to wager on. They include the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and Derrick Henry.
Below are The Sporting News' top player prop best bets for the 2021 NFL season.
All odds are via Sports Interaction.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs: OVER 5,100.5 passing yards (1.83)
Mahomes has either thrown for 5,000 yards or been on pace to throw for more than 5,000 yards twice in his two years as a starter. In 2018, he totaled 5,097 yards and a league-leading 50 touchdown passes.
Last season, he came up just short of 5,000, but he didn't play in the Chiefs' final contest. He was on pace for 5,056 passing yards after 15 games, so in a 17-game season it stands to reason that he will be able to eclipse that mark again.
There's always a chance that Andy Reid will rest Mahomes and the Chiefs' starters if they have a playoff berth locked up, but with only one bye up for grabs that's less likely than it once was. And even if he plays in just 16 games, he'll still have a chance to go well over the 5,000-yard mark. He could even approach Peyton Manning's single-season record of 5,477 yards.
So, we'll trust Mahomes to go over on this one.
Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers: UNDER 4,775.5 passing yards (1.69)
Brady posted some of his best passing numbers in nearly a decade last season with the Bucs. He racked up 4,633 yards and 40 passing touchdowns for Tampa Bay.
But can he be trusted to do that again? That's a tricky question to answer.
On the one hand, it's hard to doubt Tom Brady. He has won seven Super Bowls, after all, and was still playing at a high level during his Age 43 season.
On the other hand, Brady had surgery to replace a torn MCL during the 2021 offseason. Players return from that injury often, but he's 44 now. So it's at least worth some level of concern.
Additionally, it's worth noting that Brady has averaged 4,438 passing yards and 32 pass TDs per 16 games played since 2013. If he produces at that rate per game over a 17-game season, it won't be enough to hit the over.
So, it's best to bet on a Brady regression. Not necessarily in the win column, but at least from a statistical standpoint.
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans: OVER 1,675.5 rushing yards (2.05)
Derrick Henry has led the NFL in total rushing yards in back-to-back seasons, and there's no reason to bet on him slowing down during the 2021 season.
The Titans have spoonfed Henry an absurd amount of carries the past two seasons. In 2019 and 2020, he led the NFL in total rush attempts. He had 303 carries in '19 and a whopping 378 carries in '20.
Tennessee will probably continue to ride the 6-3, 247 pound Henry as their top offensive producer. He ran for 2,047 yards in 16 games last year, so there's a chance he could break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record in a 17-game season.
Henry needs to average less than 100 rushing yards per game to eclipse this mark, so it's very easy to trust him in this spot.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers: OVER 850.5 receiving yards (1.74)
Samuel represents a risky pick with upside. He has the potential to be a 1,000-yard receiver at the NFL level; he just hasn't stayed healthy yet.
Last year, Samuel appeared in just seven games for the 49ers. Still, he averaged 55.9 receiving yards per game despite largely playing without Jimmy Garoppolo. In 2021, Garoppolo will be healthy, and the 49ers will have a much better backup in Trey Lance than the Nick Mullens/CJ Beathard combo that the 49ers and Samuel worked with last season. Plus, Samuel is healthy again.
Also, if Lance plays well, he could overtake Garoppolo and create a nice tandem with Samuel. Samuel is a good route runner but he has enough speed to be a deep threat. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will take defensive attention away from him as well. Samuel could certainly eclipse 1,000 receiving yards if he stays healthy, so it's worth taking a chance on him.
Jared Goff, QB, Lions: Most interceptions thrown (9.35)
Betting on a player to lead the league in interceptions isn't always exciting, but it can be lucrative if you guess right. In this case, Jared Goff looks like a prime candidate to do just that. It's all about the situation surrounding him in Detroit.
The Lions don't have much receiving talent. Tyrell Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson could form a solid crew, but they don't have a proven No. 1 option. Goff is used to playing with the likes of Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, so without them and quarterback guru Sean McVay he could have more trouble finding open receivers.
It also doesn't help that Goff has struggled with interceptions before. He has totaled 41 over the past three seasons and at least 12 in each of those three seasons.
That said, even if Goff struggles in Detroit, the team isn't likely to replace him at quarterback — unless he gets hurt. They have a lot of money tied up in Goff after acquiring his bloated contract from the Rams, and their backups behind him — Tim Boyle and David Blough — only project as career backups. So, even if Goff struggles with interceptions, he'll probably stay in the game.
Those factors could all combine to give Goff a lot of chances to throw interceptions, especially since Detroit will be trailing often. We're getting enough juice here to make betting this prop worthwhile.
Chase Young, DE, Washington Football Team: Most sacks (19.11)
Young's rookie season was an excellent one, and he really came on during the second half of the season. There's a good reason to expect a big leap from the No. 2 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, too.
Young actually had a real training camp and preseason this year. That helped him get some extra reps and he showed off his immense upside when he got a sack on the first drive of Washington's game against the Patriots.
He is also fully recovered from a hip injury that gave him issues at the beginning of last season. So, his ceiling should be higher with that minor issue in the rearview mirror.
Young had 7.5 sacks as a rookie, but he could see that number double (or do even better because of the addition of a 17th game). He's a talented, young player with a lot of potential. Aaron Donald and T.J. Watt may be the safer bets, but with these kinds of odds Young could provide a nice payout if he reaches his ceiling in 2021.
While we're focusing on season-long props heading into Week 1, Sports Interaction also provides an abundance of weekly player props.
- Who will score the first or last touchdown in a single game?
- How many combined rushing and receiving yards will a player have?
- How many catches will an individual receiver haul in?
All of that — plus MUCH more — is updated weekly and available for every game on the slate.