Florida vs. Georgia betting preview and pick – UGA's running game not missing a beat

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Florida and Georgia are moving in opposite directions this season. Their paths will intersect on Saturday in Jacksonville, when they meet in their annual rivalry tilt (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS).

The Line: UGA -12.5, Total: 51

Line movement: The Bulldogs opened as 11.5-point favorites at The Wynn on Sunday evening, but were up to -13 on Monday. As of midweek, most shops were dealing 12.5 for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.  For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.

Trends that matter: The Bulldogs have won the last three matchups against the Gators, covering two of them.  The spread here, though, is far larger than the ones in any of those games … Georgia is 4-3 ATS and 6-1 to the OVER. They've won six in a row, but are only 2-2 ATS in their last four. … Florida is 2-4 ATS and 5-1 to the OVER. They've failed to cover their last two and last four out of five.

Running back U: The Bulldogs have continued to run through opponents despite the suspension of top back Todd Gurley and injury to talented freshman Sony Michel. Not to fret though. Nick Chubb, another freshman runner, has taken over as the bell cow, handling 38 and 30 carries in back-to-back weeks, totaling 143 and 202 rushing yards, respectively. The Gators have been solid against the run, allowing 117.7 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry, but they'll have their hands full against the Dawgs' powerful ground attack.

Gator bait: In the span of a few weeks, the Gators went from holding a shot to represent the SEC East in the conference title game to fighting for an invite to a bowl game -- and not one you've actually heard of. At 3-3, the Gators have one more near-automatic win (no disrespect intended to the Eastern Kentucky Colonels, who are currently ranked No. 16 in the FCS Coaches Poll), but they'll still have to find two more wins in a group of opponents that includes Georgia this week, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Florida State. This could be the second straight season the Gators missed a bowl, an unacceptable stretch of futility in Gainesville.

Injuries
-- Georgia RB Keith Marshall (ankle) questionable
-- Georgia RB Sony Michel (shoulder) questionable

Weather: The forecast is calling for clear skies with a high of 65 and a zero percent chance of rain. Wind could factor into the game at 15 mph. Check an updated forecast at weather.com.

HANDICAPPING TOOLS: Matchup analysis | Power ratings | UF page | UGA page

The Linemakers' lean:  Let's see, Florida has lost 10 of its last 13 overall, and is on a 2-8 run in the SEC.  Also, the Gators haven't beaten Georgia in their last three tries.  We won't be playing Florida this weekend, that's for sure, and by default, we'll offer the slightest of leans to Georgia minus the big number. 

In terms of the total, these rivalry games tend to feature a lot of defense, and the last three in this series have stayed UNDER.  Florida can still play  some D, and Georgia's defensive unit is improved.  We'll go UNDER the total on Saturday.

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