San Diego State vs. Nevada betting preview and pick – UNDER machines meet in Reno

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LAS VEGAS – Two Mountain West teams come into this week on two-game winning streaks. San Diego State had a week off and will come in fresh to Mackay Stadium. Meanwhile, Nevada-Reno chalked up two successful road trips at Provo and Honolulu to come back to its home turf on Saturday night (10:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network).

The Line: Nevada -3, Total: 50

Line movement: Nevada opened up at -6 in many books around Las Vegas and that number has come crashing all the way down to -3. A few shops around town have put the hook back on after falling to -3 so -3.5 is available midweek.  For updated lines from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.

Trends that matter: San Diego State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games in November. Nevada is 5-2 ATS in its last seven overall. The UNDER is 7-0 in San Diego State's last seven games overall and 12-2 in Nevada's last 14 games overall.

SDSU-UNDER: Right away, bettors must take notice of the UNDER streak that San Diego State is on. As mentioned in the trends, the Aztecs are 7-0 in their last seven outings, but what that really describes is every game this season.

The largest total that SDSU has seen this season was 60 at North Carolina, a game the Aztecs covered but lost 31-27.

At the window, San Diego State is 3-3-1. Those three losses against the spread all came in a row, which were then followed up by a two-game winning streak against conference foes New Mexico and Hawaii. The Aztecs covered as a road favorite against the Lobos and came up with a push against the Warriors.

SDSU is all about running the football. Sophomore Donnel Pumphrey from Las Vegas averages 6.9 yards per carry and has 12 touchdown runs on the year. 

Quarterback play, on the other hand, has been pretty dreadful with Quinn Kaehler leading the way. Kaehler hits 57-percent of his passes and has thrown seven interceptions against just three scores. Nevada's defense does give up 306 passing yards per game, which ranks 121st in the country.

The Linemakers Poll has SDSU ranked two points higher than UNR, which helps explain the move toward the Aztecs.

Road warriors: While the Wolf Pack are back in their friendly confines this week, UNR has actually faired better on the road this season. UNR has covered every road game which includes its last two outings; a win and cover in both Boise and Honolulu. This means each team's last opponent was Hawaii, but SDSU is coming off of a bye.

At home, Nevada is 0-2 in conference play with no covers. This will be the first time in 2014 that Nevada is favored at Mackay Stadium in Mountain West action.

UNR is also an UNDER team this season, with six out of eight contests falling below the total. This will be the lowest total the Wolf Pack have seen since opening week when Nevada hosted Southern Utah.

Duel threat quarterback Cody Fajardo will be the main focus of his opponent once again. He and the Wolf Pack come off of a game where they rushed for almost 300 yards. In fact, both teams have identical numbers in their games against Hawaii and controlled the ball for over 35 minutes. SDSU's defense is pretty good against the run, though, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry.

Last year against UNR, Kaehler had one of the best games of his career as the Aztecs won and covered a home shootout, 51-44.

Weather: The forecast calls for cool temperatures, around 47 degrees, with partly cloudy skies and winds 10 to 20 mph. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.

Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | SDSU team page | NEV team page

The Linemakers' lean: We're on board with the early line move to San Diego State, but most of the value has disappeared.  These teams are UNDER machines, but like the spread, the value on that number is starting to dry up.  While Brian Blessing likes the game UNDER 50, Richie Baccellieri will wait for the total to drop and play OVER at the last possible minute.

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