Jets vs. Chiefs betting preview and pick – Vick starting at quarterback

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The Jets have sunk to a new low, and things don’t get any easier when they play on Sunday at one of the NFL’s toughest venues, the Chiefs’ Arrowhead Stadium (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS). 

This is a matchup of the NFL’s worst ATS team (Jets) and one of the best. It is also the lowest total of the week with two predominately running teams. 

The Line:  Chiefs -9.5, Total: 41.5

Line movement: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Chiefs as 7.5-point favorites before quickly moving up to -9 later Sunday night and to -9.5 on Monday.   As of Thursday, the line ranged between -9.5 and -10 (even).  For lines from around Las Vegas,  visit our live odds page .

Trends that matter: New York is 1-6-1 ATS this year. The OVER is 3-0 in New York’s last three games.

Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last six games. The UNDER is 3-0 in Kansas City’s last three games. 

The Chiefs have covered two in a row at home but dropped their previous six home games ATS.

UNDER is 19-7 in K.C.'s last 26 games at Arrowhead.

Vick gets the nod: The Jets (1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) suffered their seventh-straight defeat last week, 43-23 to Buffalo as 3-point home favorites. Quarterback Geno Smith had three interceptions in the first quarter before being replaced by Mike Vick, who had three turnovers of his own. 

Coach Rex Ryan has decided to give the veteran Vick (18-of-36 for 153 yards last week) the first start of his Jets’ career. It doesn’t appear that Ryan’s job is in jeopardy right now as the players at least play hard for him, albeit ineffectively.

Chiefs heating up SU and ATS: Kansas City (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) may be in third place in the AFC West behind Denver and San Diego, but they’re quietly playing very good football, winning four of their last five games. They’ve also been hot against the spread, at 5-1 in their last six.  

Kansas City’s defense manhandled St. Louis last week (34-7 win as 7.5-point home favorites), and the unit is third in the league in scoring defense (18.3 PPG). The defense could also get a couple of key injured players back this week with safety Eric Berry and nickel back Chris Owens. 

Coach Andy Reid wants to keep running the ball with Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis, but the Jets’ defense allows just 3.33 yards per carry, which means Alex Smith could have to throw more than usual.  

Injuries that matter: Kansas City’s Alex Smith (shoulder) is probable, Berry (ankle) and Owens (knee) are questionable, and receiver Donnie Avery (groin) is doubtful.

Visit here for all Week 9 NFL injuries. 

Weather: Partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-50s are in the forecast for Sunday. Visit Weather Underground  for the latest forecast.

Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | Power Ratings | NYJ team page  |  KC team page

The Linemakers' lean: Feels like a bit of a letdown spot for the Chiefs, who are laying too big a number here.  According to our power ratings, K.C. -7 is the more accurate line on this game.  Michael Vick is 3 points better than Geno Smith, says The Linemakers' Kenny White.  We'll take the points with the Jets and also offer a slight lean to the UNDER.

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