Washington's Colt McCoy will make his first start in three years when the Redskins visit the Cowboys tonight at AT&T Stadium (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). McCoy replaced interception machine Kirk Cousins last week and completed 11-of-12 throws for 108 yards and a touchdown in a 19-17 win over the Titans. Washington, however, remains on an 0-4 ATS skid. And it's not like McCoy has a good track record. He has accounted for 22 touchdowns and 32 turnovers in his career, posting a 76.1 passer rating.
Quarterback Robert Griffin III is getting closer to returning from his ankle injury, but it won’t be this week.
The Cowboys continue to look like an offensive juggernaut, ranking first in rushing yards (159.7), third in total yards (402.1) and fifth in points scored (28.0). The Cowboys beat Washington 31-16 at home last year, covering as 5.5-point favorites, but that was Dallas’ only cover in the last eight meetings.
The Line: Cowboys -9.5, Total: 49.5
Line movement: Dallas opened as low as -7 (-120) at The Wynn and -8 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook last Sunday, but the line was driven up quickly, hitting -10 in some spots in early wagering. The total hovered between 49.5 and 50, before showing signs of downward movement on gameday (48.5 at The Wynn).
Trends that matter: Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games. ...Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against divisional foes....Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last seven visits to Dallas....Washington has covered in seven of the last eight meetings....The underdog is on a 24-8 ATS run in this series....The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
Strength vs. strength: Dallas’ DeMarco Murray has steamrolled every opponent he’s faced, racking up 913 rushing yards and seven touchdowns with seven straight 100-yard performances. The Redskins aren’t easy to run on. They’re tied for eighth in fewest yards allowed per carry (3.8) and rank 12th in rushing yards allowed per game (103.3). Everyone keeps waiting for Murray to slow down, since he’s already had a whopping 187 carries. But so far he seems immune to breakdowns.
Redskins’ run game stalled: While Tony Romo (career-high 104.7 passer rating) benefits from a dominant run game, Redskins quarterbacks have had no such luck. Running back Alfred Morris hasn’t had a 100-yard outing this season and is averaging a career-low 62.9 yards per game. This could be the night Morris breaks through, as Dallas allows 4.9 yards per carry (tied for 29th).
The Linemakers' lean: We're on the dog tonight, and we have trends, stats and situational elements to support our position. As mentioned above, the Redskins have owned this series from a spread standpoint, and the underdog in general has thrived. Statistically, Washington's offense ranks near the top of the league at 6.4 yards per play. And this spot does not seem favorable for Dallas, which may be lacking for motivation and looking forward to next week's key conference tilt with Arizona. We'll wait for this line to grow ahead of kickoff and take the Skins plus double digits.