Linemakers, AccuScore in agreement on Game 7 pick



The Giants and Royals will compete in Game 7 of the Fall Classic tonight, just the second time since 2002 baseball fans have been treated to a World Series that has gone the distance.

Manager Bruce Bochy will send Tim Hudson to the hill to face the Royals' Jeremy Guthrie.   As of 12:30 p.m. ET, CG Technology is dealing the Royals as -139 favorites, with the Giants drawing odds of +129.

After struggling through a brutal September (21.2 IP, 8.72 ERA), Hudson has righted the ship -- to an extent. He was stellar against the Nationals in the NLDS, tossing 7.1 innings of one-run ball (with eight Ks and zero BBs), but merely average in his next two starts (12 IP, 5.25 ERA). He allowed three earned runs in 5.2 innings in his Game 3 start against the Royals, a game the Giants lost 3-2.

Guthrie, meanwhile, has been an unlikely ace for K.C., allowing two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts, including the Royals' 3-2 victory in Game 3. His current groove is one reason the Royals are favored to win this game and take the series.

The Linemakers' lean: We still like the Giants to find a way to win Game 7 and take home their third title in five seasons. The Royals' bullpen has received plenty of attention this postseason, and rightfully so, but the Giants could turn to ace Madison Bumgarner out of the 'pen for an inning or two if necessary. And while a starting pitcher's dominance doesn't always translate in relief, you have to like the Giants' chances if Bumgarner is tasked with handing a lead off to closer Santiago Casilla.

We're also playing OVER 7 -115, a price that is available at the South Point.

Partner pick: AccuScore, after simulating the game 10,000 times, gives San Francisco a 51.5 percent chance to win.  The Giants' +129 odds imply just a 43.7 percent chance to win.  That means there's plenty of value in the Giants as an underdog, per AccuScore.

Based on AccuScore’s sims, when Bumgarner pitches an inning of relief, San Francisco’s win probability increases 0.5 percent.  It sounds like a small number, but in such a tight series, it could be a difference maker.